A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
