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China has sent its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.