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Growing concerns exist over the potential of warfare among East African neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has intensified in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a intense verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and suggested the wish to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of losing entry to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

In the face of ongoing challenges from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on X from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of reclaiming lost territory.

Eritrean authorities warned on mid-September that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has shown completion events of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of personnel division of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an interview that the military was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Origins of the Conflict

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British military before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict ensued, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then approved by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this ended in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The both leaders agreed to a statement that the conflict was over – a move that won the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

But ties have since broken down again.